Ultramar Polymarket

The signal layer for Ultramar.capital. It compares Polymarket prices with derivatives-implied probabilities, then turns those dislocations into monitored trading signals.

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ultramar — signal-feedLIVE

MARKET	IMPLIED	THEO	SPREAD
BTC-28MAR-100K	0.342	0.418	+0.076
ETH-28MAR-4500	0.281	0.195	-0.086
BTC-25APR-120K	0.156	0.203	+0.047
ETH-25APR-5000	0.094	0.071	-0.023
BTC-30MAY-150K	0.067	0.112	+0.045

Ultramar.capital ecosystem

One investment platform, three operating surfaces.

Start with the allocator, inspect the market-neutral signal engine, then move into tokenized private-market assets without losing the Ultramar context.

Allocator

Portfolio allocator

The investor-facing gateway for comparing the Ultramar strategy suite, risk notes, and portfolio views.

View strategies

Signals

Event-market alpha

A quantitative dashboard for Polymarket probability dislocations, Deribit context, and execution monitoring.

Current surface

Private markets

Tokenized real assets

The RWA rail for issuer data, solvency proofs, permissioned assets, and secondary-market experiments.

Explore assets

Capabilities

Full-stack signal infrastructure

Real-time Signals

Continuous ingestion from Polymarket and Deribit. Detects price discrepancies the moment they appear.

Options Pricing

Black-Scholes model with implied volatility surface. Computes theoretical probabilities from the options market.

Risk Management

Kelly criterion sizing, position limits, and real-time exposure tracking. Built-in guardrails.

Paper Trading

Backtest strategies with historical replay before committing capital. Validate signals risk-free.

How it works

From market data to actionable signals

Ingest

WebSocket feeds from prediction markets and options exchanges stream into the normalization layer.

Detect

Implied probabilities are compared against Black-Scholes theoretical values. Spreads are flagged in real-time.

Execute

Actionable signals with Kelly-optimal sizing. Paper trade or go live with built-in hedging.

Start detecting signals

Open the dashboard to explore live trading signals, or create an account to unlock paper trading and execution.

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